The GTA Market Is Shifting – And Smart Buyers Are Paying Attention
March 2026
Big news: the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.25%. If you’ve been keeping an eye on the market — whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just curious about where things are headed — this is worth a read.
We’ve broken it all down for you.
Borrowing Costs Are Stable – And That’s a Good Thing
The rate has now held at 2.25% for six consecutive months, and Canada’s prime rate remains at 4.45%. Ratehub.ca Variable mortgage rates are sitting around 3.35% — some of the most affordable we’ve seen in years. What that means for you is simple: you can plan. No surprises, no scrambling. Just a clear picture of what homeownership actually costs right now.
Prices Are Down. And Listings Are Getting Scarce.
Here’s where it gets interesting. According to the latest TRREB data, the average GTA home sold for $1,008,968 in February — down 7.1% from a year ago. Prices are softer. But at the same time, new listings dropped by nearly 18% year-over-year — much faster than the dip in sales.
Translation? There are fewer homes to choose from, and the buyers who are out there are serious.
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld said it well: “If new listings continue to trend lower through the spring, competition between homebuyers will increase, supporting home prices and a recovery in sales.”
The opportunity is here. It just won’t stay this way forever.
A Wave of Buyers Is Coming. Get Ahead of It.
Over 100,000 GTA buyers are currently sitting on the sidelines, waiting for prices to stabilize and for some clarity on the trade front. Once those pieces fall into place, expect a surge — and with it, more competition and upward pressure on prices.
The buyers who move now are the ones who’ll look back and feel great about their decision.
Thinking About Selling? This Market Might Surprise You.
With so few new listings hitting the market, your home has a real chance to stand out. The buyers browsing right now aren’t just kicking tires – they’re motivated, pre-approved, and ready to make a move. A stable rate environment means they know exactly what they can afford, and they’re not hesitating when the right home comes along. Price it well, present it beautifully, and the demand is there.
The Bottom Line
Lower prices. Stable rates. Less competition. That’s a combination that doesn’t come around often – and based on everything we’re seeing, the window may be starting to close.
Whether you’re buying your first home, upgrading, investing, or thinking about making a move, we’d love to help you figure out your next step.
We’re Here When You’re Ready
This is exactly the kind of market where having the right team in your corner makes all the difference. We know the GTA, we know the neighbourhoods, and we know how to help you make a move you’ll feel confident about.
Give us a call or send us a message — let’s chat about what’s possible for you.
Ready to chat? Reach out to Team Elfassy. We promise to keep it real, keep it simple, and help you make the smartest decision for your situation – wherever in the GTA that happens to be.
Market stats from Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), February 2026
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on Group-Admiral Realty Inc., Brokerage
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